This Saturday, Las Vegas, Nevada will be host to yet another installment in the long line of Puerto Rican versus Mexican fights. For long, the two countries have battled it out in the lower weight classes and the rivalry has given us plenty of classic and exciting fights. True, there have been some duds in the process (everyone would have liked to see Camacho fight more against Chávez instead of simply surviving) but the upcoming bout for Lopez’s WBO featherweight strap should be explosive while it lasts.
Both fighters carry more than enough pop to really hurt each other and both have a tendency to slug it out even when their boxing would fare better. Going into the first of his four fight extravaganza against Israel Vázquez, Márquez was deemed slightly better in terms of technique; still he would not back down from any exchanges throughout the four bouts that ended in two wins a piece. Against Silence Mabuza, Marquez also got in brawls where his boxing could have carried him to a victory without receiving as much leather. For a boxer of his pedigree, the fact that he has been stopped four out of the five times he has lost is proof enough that he is susceptible to getting knocked out.
Similarly, López tends to leave his chin out in the open and trade at times when there’s no need for it unless you call getting the crowd to their feet a “need”. Against journeyman Rogers Mtagwa, López easily dominated the first rounds but gradually fell into Mtagwa’s fight and had to survive the final two rounds out on his feet. Not only was he tired and hurt, he appeared unable to throw punches and stay up on his feet at the same time. Still, Juan-Ma would only clinch in the final round, a round that was correctly scored by many as a 10-8 round despite there being no knockdowns. In his latest outing, López had to get off the canvas in round one against to stop his out powered Bernabé Concepción in round two.
But enough about each fighter’s weaknesses. Their fortes are what will make for a spectacular bout. Both fighters bring an 89 percent knockout ratio into the fight. And these knockouts haven’t come against tomato cans and have beens. López’s (29-0, 26KO’s) resume includes stoppage victories over Daniel Ponce de Leon, Gerry Peñalosa and Steven Luevano. Ponce de León hasn’t lost since, and Peñalosa and Luevano both retired having only been stopped by López. Failing to hear the final bell against Márquez (39-5, 35KO’s) are Mark Johnson in their second fight, Israel Vázquez in their first and fourth matches and Tim Austin among others. Johnson wouldn’t get knocked out again for over two years and Austin would only get stopped in his last fight, three years after and way past his prime.
Both fighters are sound technicians and have great form in their boxing. Márquez may have an edge in the stamina department as he has proven he can fight twelve hard rounds while López has a tendency to loose power and form as the fight progresses. The Puerto Rican southpaw likes to punch first and can put two and three punches together very well while the two division Mexican champion is an excellent counter puncher who can land combos impressively well while staying in the pocket.
Although boxrec.com lists López with advantages in height and reach, these are minimal and when face to face, Márquez seemed the taller of the two. Still, at 126 lbs., López seems like the bigger man going into the fight.
Márquez has only fought twice at the featherweight limit. First against José Francisco Mendoza and then his fourth fight against Vázquez. He stopped both of them in the third round but Mendoza wasn’t on his level and too little of Vázquez was left for that fight to properly judge his performance at an elite level in the division. The Puerto Rican’s record at the weight consists of having stopped Luevano for the belt and a defense against Concepción. Against both men, López seemed the much stronger fighter and Luevano specifically was almost unable to hurt him.
Had this fight taken place a few years back, in a lower weight division or before Márquez had taken so much punishment, odds makers wouldn’t have López close to the three to one favorite he is right now. But the time is now, the weight is 126 lbs. and Márquez has fought 28 rounds with Israel Vázquez. If the Mexican veteran can’t hurt Juan-Ma or falls behind during the first half of the fight, he will most likely get stopped. If he can keep the fight even going into the final four rounds he’ll add another name to his already Hall of Fame worthy career.
For López, it remains to be seen if he can keep this fight in familiar territory. As a friend of mine wisely noted, the young champion has yet to enter the seventh round of a fight behind on the score cards or worse yet, loosing the physical aspect of the fight. Still, a superb straight left combined with a short tight right hook give López very good odds at hurting Márquez early on and a cut or swollen Márquez going into the seventh probably won’t make it to the final bell. Juan-Ma has to keep his composure and work off his jab if he wants to keep the “o” at the end of his record.
After much thought, I’ll say López wins by late TKO.
