Canelo Alvarez emerges as the biggest winner from Floyd Mayweather Jr.’s predictable and perhaps necessary victory over Robert Guerrero. Argue you all you want about the merits of Mayweather’s dominance. Get over it. Doesn’t matter. Besides, what did anyone really expect?
If dollars are the most reliable path in boxing or any other business, it was no surprise. Follow the purses. According to contracts filed with the Nevada State Athletic Commission, Mayweather’s guarantee was $32.5 million. Guerrero’s was $3 million.
Mayweather’s compensation was 10.83 times more than Guerrero’s paycheck. That’s a long way from the widening gap that separates CEO from employee in today’s America. According to various sources, that number is bigger by 350 to 354 times, or more canyon than gap.
No matter how it’s calculated, here’s the bottom line: Guerrero did what he was hired to do. He was virtually Mayweather’s employee. He might as well have come into the ring on May 4 at Las Vegas’ MGM Grand wearing one of those caps that say TMT, the Mayweather logo that stands for The Money Team.
Guerrero clocked in at opening bell and clocked out after 12 rounds of work. He allowed Mayweather to shake off some rust and re-establish a working relationship with his dad, Floyd Sr., who is back as his trainer. Above all, Guerrero was a vehicle for Mayweather to test his readiness for a Showtime contract worth $250 million if he fights five more times over the next 30 months. So far, so good.
But the tune-up Mayweather needed left a potential problem. Guerrero is everything that Alvarez is not. Alvarez continues to emerge as a Mayweather equal at the box office with proven drawing power absent on May 4. As of Thursday, pay-per-view numbers had yet to be released. If – as rumored – they fall short of expectations, Alvarez’ importance to Showtime’s deal with Mayweather grows.
Even if the numbers are better than speculated, Alvarez-Mayweather is the fight Showtime must have if the deal is to succeed. Alvarez, of Guadalajara, is the red-head Pied Piper for Mexican fans. He brings the Mexican audience. No demographic is more important in boxing. Mayweather seemed to forget that on May 4 when he tried to appropriate the popular Cinco de Mayo holiday for himself. On fight posters, the celebratory weekend was called May Day.
In 2007, Mayweather wore a sombrero and Mexican colors into the ring before a split-decision on May 5 over Oscar de la Hoya. That might have been a little over the top, but it worked because it acknowledged an audience that has helped him make all that Money. His tip of the sombrero was noticed then. Six years later, I can’t help but think there’s annoyance at suddenly seeing his signature on the same weekend that is Mexican history.
In a savvy move, Alvarez displayed business smarts usually associated with Mayweather when he decided not to fight on the May 4 card, because he couldn’t be guaranteed a Mayweather fight on September 14. Instead, he moved into the main event in a victory on April 20 over Austin Trout in San Antonio. A crowd of nearly 40,000 showed up at the Alamodome. Ticket prices were cheaper than they were in Vegas for Mayweather-Guerrero. But would 40,000 have shown up for Mayweather-Guerrero in San Antonio?
It’s impossible to say what the pay-per-view audience would have been on May 4 if Alvarez had been on the card. But it’s fair to assume they would have been better than whatever the official tally winds up being. Talks for Alvarez-Mayweather reportedly are already underway. At this point, the proposed financial split is anybody’s guess. But here’s a good one: Alvarez won’t fight for $3 million. Multiply Guerrero’s guarantee five times, add a substantial percentage of the Mexican television revenue to Alvarez’ purse and you might get a deal.
We say might, because it’s hard to know how Mayweather will react. He has a history of dictating terms, a factor in the abortive talks for a fight with Manny Pacquiao. If Home Box Office had signed a Showtime-like deal with Mayweather, HBO might still be counting its losses. An HBO deal with Mayweather would have needed Pacquiao then as much as Showtime needs Alvarez now.
Time could be pushing Mayweather to an Alvarez fight sooner than anyone might have expected. At 36, Mayweather is probably a step or two beyond his prime. He said after beating Guerrero that he is five fights from retirement. His best chance might be now instead of later against the 22-year-old Alvarez, who is still approaching his prime.
Meanwhile, the ambitious Alvarez might pay for some youthful impatience. He continues to lobby for Mayweather. Alvarez fights at 154 pounds. Mayweather, comfortable at welterweight, could demand a fight at 147, forcing him into a diet and regimen that could weaken him. There are warnings that Alvarez is getting ahead of himself. Friends and associates are telling him to fight Miguel Cotto first. They are asking him to wait.
But time, money, Mexican fans, Canelo’s ambitions and his emerging role as a make-or-break component in Showtime’s deal with Mayweather are creating momentum hard to stop.
