Floyd Mayweather Jr.’s biggest challenge on May 3 won’t come from Marcos Maidana. Not even Maidana’s heavy-handed power has much of a chance at knocking Mayweather off his pound-for-pound perch.
But Mayweather’s promotional skill faces a real test as he reaches what could be the halfway point of a Showtime deal for a possible six fights and a potential $250 million. Maidana-Mayweather looks to be a tough sell, especially at a pay-per-view price for the Showtime telecast that figures to be $60, or $70 for high definition.
Mayweather’s biggest rivals will be in a busy PPV market during the next few months. There’s Canelo Alvarez-Alfredo Angulo on Showtime PPV on March 8. On April 12, Manny Pacquiao and Tim Bradley engage in a PPV rematch offered by Home Box Office. After Mayweather-Maidana, there’s Miguel Cotto-Sergio Martinez on June 7, also an HBO pay-per-view bout.
To watch all four in high-def, it’ll cost $280. That’s not much if you’re in Mayweather’s income bracket. For the average fan, however, that’s a lot of groceries.
Mayweather’s marketing team will invest time and ad money into saying that Maidana is dangerous. He is – he was – in beating Adrien Broner in a December upset that shoved Amir Khan to the back of the line and earned Maidana the big payday that comes with a shot at Mayweather.
But some of the early betting odds indicate that the public will need a lot of convincing. Mayweather could be a 10-1 favorite. Translation: The bookies are saying that the betting public thinks that Maidana has no chance. Compare that to Pacquiao-Bradley in a sequel of Bradley’s hugely controversial decision over the Filipino Congressman in June, 2012. Pacquiao is a slight favorite.
Odds are, Pacquiao-Bradley is the better buy.
There’s a theory, often offered by Showtime, that people will watch Mayweather no matter who he fights. OK, Mayweather possesses singular speed and skill. But this isn’t Olympic figure skating. It’s a fight. If there isn’t much doubt, there isn’t much drama.
Maidana is a tough sell for at least two reasons:
· Khan, whose reputation has taken the biggest beating in the polling and guessing game over who Mayweather would anoint as his next foe, beat Maidana in what was the 2010 Fight of the Year.
· Maidana lost a one-sided decision to Devon Alexander in 2012. On only one of three scorecards did Maidana win a single round. He was shut out on two cards. The 10-round loss to the quick Alexander could serve as a preview to what might happen to Maidana against Mayweather, who has lost some foot speed but still had enough to confound Robert Guerrero and Canelo. Maidana has one thing in common with Guerrero and Canelo. He’s flat-footed, which represents two more reasons to think he has virtually no chance on May 3.
Mayweather, whose career has generated a reported 12.8 million PPV customers for about $800 million in gross revenue, is averaging 1.5 million PPV buys over his last eight bouts, according to reports from the networks and television media.
It’ll be harder to maintain that average than it will to stay unbeaten.
