Shopping List: From August to November, boxing is a buyer’s market

By Norm Frauenheim-

The table is set. From late August to November, from late summer to late fall, there’s a boxing schedule worth celebrating.

The harvest starts with Abner Mares-Leo Santa Cruz on August 29 at Los Angeles’ Staples center.

It continues with Floyd Mayweather Jr.-Andre Berto on Sept. 12 at Las Vegas’ MGM Grand in a historical mismatch, yet another reason for the Mayweather haters to hope that the improbable finally happens.

Then, there’s Gennady Golovkin-David Lemieux on Oct. 17 at New York’s Madison Square Garden on a card that looms as a test of GGG’s pay-per-view marketability and includes the game’s best-kept secret, flyweight Roman Gonzalez, against Brian Viloria.

Finally, there’s the biggie, Canelo Alvarez-Miguel Cotto, on Nov. 21 at Las Vegas’ Mandalay Bay in a bout loaded with history that does not figure to include a mismatch.

Happy Thanksgiving.

The menu’s biggest question, perhaps, is how to rate them, or perhaps price them. In announcing Cotto-Canelo for the middleweight title Thursday, Canelo promoter Oscar De La Hoya was quoted as saying the PPV price for the HBO telecast won’t be $100.

That was a crack directed at the sticker-shock tag for the high-def telecast of Mayweather’s dull decision over Manny Pacquiao May 2.
Left unsaid, however, was whether the PPV tag for Canelo-Cotto would be similar to the price ($64.95 for HD/$54.95 for the regular telecast) of Showtime’s production of Mayweather-Berto.

There was a lot of talk about a backlash after the Mayweather-Pacquiao disappointment. Big live gates and good television ratings for subsequent bouts – Canelo’s stoppage of James Kirkland in Houston, for instance – say that the fans will still watch.

This fall’s rich variety of options, however, might make the customers a lot more discerning about how they spend their Holiday dollars.

In part, the price tag fro Canelo-Cotto appears to hinge on whether Andre Ward winds up on the card. There’s talk that he might in a bout that would create further momentum for a 2016 showdown between Ward and light-heavyweight Sergey Kovalev, the most interesting man in boxing today. It’s no coincidence that Kovalev’s next fight is scheduled for Nov. 28 in Moscow.

Meanwhile, we’re still waiting to hear the PPV tag for the HBO telecast of GGG-Lemieux. The initial guess here was that the bout might draw 300,000 buys if priced at $50. If the live gate’s pre-sale at MSG is an indication, however, that might be a little conservative.

A record of more than 6,000 tickets was sold. GGG interest is growing. But the real test of his popularity rests in PPV sales, which in turn depends on price, price, price.

Best option of all might be the first one. Mares-Santa Cruz for a featherweight title is on ESPN. No PPV investment at all. On a couple of levels, it’s the most intriguing of the four. It looms as the best PBC bout since Al Haymon launched his series in March.

Mares and Santa Cruz have been rivals for almost as long as anybody has known them. The fight also is a test of
the thinking that goes into Mayweather’s claim, The Best Ever, which will continue two weeks after Mares-Santa Cruz in his pursuit of a 49-0 record against Berto.

For Mayweather, TBE means an unbeaten career. For others, however, TBE is defined by adversity. That means defeat. Dealing with it. Overcoming it. Muhammad Ali did. Sugar Ray Robinson did. Without it, they might not be remembered as legends.

Santa Cruz is unbeaten and mostly unchallenged, especially over the last couple of years against over matched opponents. Mares is 4-0 after a suffering a crushing first-round knock out at the hands of Jhonny Gonzalez in 2013.

Mares has often appeared tentative since the KO. Meanwhile, Santa Cruz has simply appeared unstoppable. Has Mares forged some newfound toughness in the couple of years since his lone loss? Can Santa Cruz counter adversity he hasn’t seen?
We’re about to find out over a three-month run with options and answers.