What retirement? Pacquiao decides on Vargas and hopes for Mayweather

By Norm Frauenheim-

It’s hard to know what to make of Manny Pacquiao’s decision to fight Jessie Vargas on November 5, other than to say he never retired.

Please, don’t call it a comeback. Pacquiao never went away. He ran for office. He won, changing his Filipino title from Congressman to Senator. He wrote some legislation and apparently a lot of checks.

He said this week he would continue to fight, in part because his Senate salary just wasn’t enough, despite the $100-plus million he reportedly collected for his loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. just 15 months ago.

“Boxing is my main source of income,’’ Pacquiao said Wednesday in announcing he would fight Vargas at Las Vegas’ Thomas & Mack Arena. “I can’t rely on my salary as a public official. I’m helping the family of my wife and my own family, as well.

“Many people also come to me to ask for help and I just couldn’t ignore them.”

If it’s possible, Pacquiao gives away money faster than Mayweather spends it. At this rate, there’s a better chance Pacquiao will still be in the ring than there is Michael Phelps will be in the Olympic pool at the 2020 Tokyo Games. If nine figures can’t cover what Pacquiao spends over less than a year-and-a-half, what can?

It’s not clear how much he’ll earn against Vargas, the WBO’s welterweight champion. But it’s safe to say it won’t be the $20-to-25 million minimum Pacquiao collected over the last few years, including his last fight – a decision in April over Timothy Bradley in a second rematch.

That kind of money isn’t there any more, mostly because of a steep decline in pay-per-view numbers in the wake of the disappointing Mayweather-Pacquiao fight.

Before junior-welterweight Terence Crawford’s one-sided decision over Viktor Postol on July 23, Pacquaio promoter Bob Arum said that the Filipino understood that the business had changed. He said he could make a deal with the Senator.

“We’re not talking about those kind of crazy numbers,” Arum told the Los Angeles Times this week.

But those numbers are still a guessing game until Arum announces how and who will telecast the pay-per-view. It looks as if it won’t be HBO, the premium network that carried Pacquiao’s top-earning bouts. ESPN has been rumored. But at what price?

The decision to fight Vargas instead of the emerging Crawford appears to be a bet on a rematch with Mayweather, perhaps next May. Signs that Pacquiao would sidestep Crawford were apparent in the wake of Crawford’s blowout of Postol.

Crawford’s agile footwork and versatility surprised Postol trainer Freddie Roach, also Pacquiao’s trainer. It was evident that Crawford’s overall speed would be very hard to overcome, even at 140-pounds, perhaps Pacquiao’s ideal weight. Roach said as much.

A loss to Crawford would likely mean irrelevancy, if not a real retirement, for Pacquaio. Surely, it would badly damage any chance at a Mayweather rematch. Hence, Vargas, the safer choice, at 147 instead of 140.

But even that’s a risk. Mayweather has been mostly silent since he spent all that time talking about a big-money deal in a bout with the UFC’s Conor McGregor. There’ no indication that he is any more interested in a comeback than he was at the moment he formally announced his retirement after beating Andre Berto in September 2015.

Mayweather has said he might be interested if the money – his nickname and motivation – is right. He reportedly collected $240 million for Pacquiao. He had a $32-million guarantee for each of his bouts in a six-fight deal with Showtime.

Like Arum said, crazy numbers. But it’s also crazy to think Mayweather would ask for anything less than $32 million, even if he were interested. The guess – and that’s all it is – is that he will be. He’s still young enough. He’ll be 40 on Feb. 24. He retired at 49-0. Fifty-and-0 has to be a temptation.

The bigger question is whether there’s even an audience for an encore. The bout in May 2015 set a record for PPV buys at 4.4 million. The theory is that a rematch could do at least 1 million, meaning it would make money. But the ongoing decline only raises questions about whether anyone wants a sequel that would only remind everyone of the original.