By Bart Barry–
Here’s what’s going to happen Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on HBO pay-per-view: American Andre “SOG” Ward will fight Russian Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev for the light-heavyweight championship of the world. Ward will verb, Kovalev will verb, and adjective noun will fight adverb until Noun has won a bloody, brutal noun.
In our new postfactual world what matters indeed more than everything else is what one witnesses with his own senses and experiences with her own emotions, and that courts the most attractive element of this fight: Aficionados do not, for once in years and years, have any certainty who will win a pay-per-view main event and have a chance to experience catharsis. Let us rejoice in that before we project a myriad of unrelated grievances on this combat spectacle. It’s OK to rejoice for once, really it is, without fixating on what is known or insisted by others.
Here, I’ll go first: I didn’t see Andre Ward grow up in a biracial home, and therefore don’t much care that it happened; I did not experience the Nagasakis-worth of radiation dumped in Lake Karachay, 100 km northwest of Sergey Kovalev’s hometown, and therefore don’t care much that it happened; I care deeply about what each man will do to the other with his fists and very little about why.
Is that a loss of empathy? No it is not. Empathy is a connection with another creature one experiences genuinely and spontaneously in the presence of that other creature; one does not successfully plan empathy; whatever sadness one feels for a stranger on social media is sympathy, not empathy, and thus open to entire industries committed to its manufacture and monetization. Such pitches are all a way of gaming others’ emotions, and one of the many admirable things about both these men is how little they’ve sold autobiography and identity in lieu of violence. Recently we’ve got more identity from them than before but that is attributable to a couple things: 1. Dreadful competition – since a tremendous stoppage of Chad Dawson four years ago Ward’s resume is, in a word, embarrassing; since making a signature win of a 50-year-old in 2014 Kovalev mostly has marked time and cashed checks – and 2. Floyd Mayweather taught HBO and the rest of the boxing industry this is how fights are sold (some department at Time Warner, we can be sure, has metrics and models, polling in effect, that prove this – and we now know how much more trustworthy big data is than intuition, don’t we?).
No aficionado is going to buy Saturday’s match because of post-Soviet food shortages or drug addiction in Oakland but, one theory goes, if we can get enough sentimentality in the eyes of casual sportsfans perhaps we can flush from his burrow that millionth pay-per-viewer who went underground the morning of May 3, 2015, and anyway aficionados aren’t going anywhere – which is true so long as you don’t keep count or, better yet, don’t publish the count (expect those Pacquiao-Vargas numbers right about the time we get the Cotto-Malignaggi tally).
The best Ward beats the best Kovalev every time they fight from now till their 50th birthdays, but will the best Ward be there to swap hands with Kovalev or will Ward’s weightgain and aforementioned competition send somebody less in the ring? Not if Ward has any say about it, one assumes, and Ward does but perhaps not so much as he and his trainer believe. Ward fetishizes control the way Mayweather did, for much the same reasons, though Ward’s control appears more self-directed than Mayweather’s, which often manifested itself in the way he handicapped and selected opponents – there’s no way in this life or the next Mayweather, in Ward’s position, would have acquiesced to a prime Kovalev.
So long as Ward is in control of himself in the ring Saturday Kovalev has very little chance of doing enough to win this fight. And there just isn’t enough unpredictable in Kovalev to believe otherwise will happen; he outworked old Bernard in every round, sure, but he didn’t hurt him and didn’t surprise him and that’s a problem because while there is no reason to believe Hopkins is a better prizefighter than Ward – greater, yes, but not better – there’s plenty of reason to believe Ward is 19 years younger than Hopkins. That matter of age is important because it speaks to activity, and relentlessness is the reason most intelligently given by those intelligent folks who believe Kovalev may beat Ward.
There’s an argument to be made for Kovalev’s power, too, perhaps, but reports of Kovalev hitting proportionally harder at 175 pounds than Mikkel Kessler or Carl Froch or Allan Green or Arthur Abraham hit at 168 do not feel credible, and Ward took shots from each of those guys and didn’t buckle a bit, so this old adage will favor SOG: Fighters gain weight on their chins more than their fists. Kovalev is sound and mean but not particularly imaginative and he’ll need to show imagination when Ward gets on his chest and wrestles him and fouls him and puts him in an honest-to-goodness fight.
Does Kovalev have the means, the will and fortitude and energy, to react courageously and violently to Ward’s provocation? Yes, and then some. That reaction will be part of Ward’s plan, though, and what happens next is what makes this the most compelling fight of 2016.
I think Ward pieces him up, KO-12.
Bart Barry can be reached via Twitter @bartbarry
