Canelo-GGG: Same address, better fight set for the rematch

By Norm Frauenheim-

Location, location, location. It’s no surprise that the real estate won’t change for the Canelo Alvarez-Gennady Golovkin rematch. The middleweights will pick up where they left off at Las Vegas T-Mobile Arena on May 5, Cinco de Mayo. Canelo de Mayo, too.

Canelo always said he would re-claim the holiday for Mexicans. He has. Now that Floyd Mayweather Jr. has moved on and presumably won’t try to move in on the date like he did three weeks before the Sept. 16 bout late last August against Conor McGregor, Canelo will continue to reign as the NHL arena’s primary boxing resident. Tickets go on sale Tuesday.

“I am happy to return for the fourth time at T-Mobile Arena for this historic rematch against Golovkin,” Canelo said Thursday in a news release announcing that there will be no change of address. “I opened the doors of this place to the world of boxing, and it has become my favorite venue. This is where the fight started, and this is where I’ll end it by doing what I and my fans most desire: knocking him out.”

On the prediction scale, Canelo’s KO promise is boiler-plate. Still, a stoppage of GGG might be the only way for him to silence some boos from Mexican fans unhappy with his performance in the draw last September. Canelo fought in spurts. He’s going to change up his preparations this time around.

He’s headed to Colorado to train at altitude that might augment his conditioning. I’m not sure that will weaken GGG’s chin, however. Can Canelo win? Yeah, oh yeah. Above all, he’s proven to be a very good student, especially in the aftermath of an embarrassing loss to Mayweather in September, 2013. At 27, it’s safe to say we have yet to see the best of him.

Meanwhile, the theory is that GGG is a step beyond his prime. He’s 35. He’ll be 36 at opening bell. His birthday is April 8. More telling, perhaps, are the bruises and swelling apparent in his face after his last three fights – Kell Brook, Danny Jacobs and Canelo. Those optics are early signs of an aging fighter. But sometimes the younger man shows up, especially in fighters as good as Golovkin has been.

From this corner, the intersection of time and place appears to favor Canelo. But early betting odds say something else. They slightly favor GGG (minus 170) over Canelo (plus 140). In other words, it’s almost a pick-em fight. Surely, the rematch is intriguing on multiple levels, even more so than the first one. Canelo promises explosive drama by saying he’ll knock out GGG. Good enough. Knockouts sell. But adjustments fascinate. Look for plenty of the latter. Each fighter possesses a high-ring IQ. There’s some danger in that, of course. Their respective smarts set up a sequel that could go to the scorecards all over again. Judging proved to be a huge controversy in the first one. If there’s any surprise about the rematch’s site, it’s the state not the arena. GGG was angry at the draw delivered by the judges last September. Some of his fans urged him not to return to Vegas.

The first bout and post-fight news conference will be remembered for outrage over Adalaide Byrd’s 118-110 score for Canelo. For some at ringside, Dave Moretti had it right a 115-113 card for GGG. Lost amid all of the anger at Byrd, however, was Don Trella’s card. He scored it a draw, 114-114.

Like the fair-minded Moretti, he gave the final rounds to Canelo. But his score for the seventh is curious. Moretti, most in HBO television audience, the crowd at T-Mobile and the ringside press gave the middle rounds, including the seventh, to GGG. Even Byrd scored the seventh for Golovkin. In fact, it was one of only two rounds that Byrd gave to GGG.

But Trella gave the seventh to Canelo, 10-9. Had he scored it as most everyone else seemed to, GGG would have won a split decision.

GGG’s reunion with the Nevada State Athletic Commission figures to be the biggest story during the weeks before the rematch. There will be plenty of talk about the assignment of the judges. Safe to say, it won’t be Byrd. But that and the location, location, location of a possible trilogy are the only sure things.