By Norm Frauenheim-
Anthony Joshua can strengthen, if not secure, his claim on being the face of a tribal game Saturday against Joseph Parker because of an ongoing mess that leaves a lot of questions about Canelo Alvarez.
Other than mounting controversy, it’s hard to know what’s next for Alvarez, boxing’s pay-per-view leader since Floyd Mayweather Jr.’s exit.
Chances that Alvarez’ middleweight rematch against Gennady Golovkin will happen on May 5 at Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena look increasingly unlikely after the Nevada Athletic Commission filed a formal complaint against him on Thursday for testing positive on February 17 and again on Feb. 20.
The Nevada Commission is expected to rule at a meeting re-scheduled for April 18. It had originally been scheduled for April 10.
The complaint appears to be the first step toward a suspension of Alvarez, who says Clenubuterol was found in his system nearly three weeks after the fight was announced on January 29 because of tainted meat he says he ate while training in Guadalajara.
Even before Thursday’s filing, there were plenty of signs that a suspension looms. HBO pulled its ads for the fight. The MGM Grand said it is offering ticket refunds.
Translation: Fewer and fewer people think the fight will happen, at least not on May 5, an annual Mexican holiday that some fans have now dubbed Cinco de Maybe.
According to the complaint, Alvarez faces a suspension of nine to 24 months. It can be reduced by as much as half if Alvarez is deemed to be cooperative and credible. He is expected to speak to the Commission at the April 18 hearing.
The best guess is that the Commission issues a six-month suspension dating back to the first positive test, Feb. 17.
That would mean Canelo would be eligible to fight on August 18, opening up the possibility that the rematch could move to September 18, two days after Mexico’s Independence Day celebration on Sept. 16.
Alvarez and Golovkin fought to a controversial draw last Sept. 16, also at T-Mobile. That one begged for a rematch and still does.
All of this is happening just as the unbeaten Joshua, the IBF and WBA champion, gets ready to defend his belt (Showtime 5 p.m. ET/2 p.m. PT) in Cardiff, Wales, against Parker, also unbeaten and a likeable New Zealand heavyweight with the WBO title.
The Cardiff fight at a soccer stadium is expected to draw a crowd of about 80,000. That would mean Joshua has draw 250,000 customers over his last three fights, including a reported 90,000 at London’s Wembley Stadium for his stoppage of Wladimir Klitschko last April.
Those are numbers that suggest Joshua is already more popular than Canelo.
A sensational performance against Parker would leave little doubt.
Potential erosion in Alvarez’s popularity coincides with UK promoter Eddie Hearn’s plans to introduce Joshua to an American audience, perhaps against Deontay Wilder, who promotes himself better than anybody else has or could.
This week, Wilder has caused a mild storm by refusing to attend Joshua-Parker, apparently because he wouldn’t be allowed to go face-to-face with Joshua after the fight.
Face-to-face, the only Joshua-Wilder meeting that matters is at opening bell. That looks more like a when than an if.
Especially amid a growing flap that leaves fans frustrated and looking for a new, fresh face with a future still untainted by filings, complaints, hearings and possible suspension.
