By Norm Frauenheim-
LAS VEGAS – There’s a long-held theory that negotiations are part of any fight. It’s a little early to pick a winner or loser in the agreement for Gennady Golovkin-Canelo Alvarez rematch.
Let’s just say the business picked up a badly-needed win. Meanwhile, there are plenty of reasons to anticipate many more twists and turns to what will finally be an opening bell in a sequel to last year’s controversial draw.
If there are hints in Wednesday’s succession of no deal to an agreement within about the time it takes to eat lunch, we can expect just about anything. Don’t miss the rules meeting. Brace for noisy debates about judges, the referee, or whether the gloves’ padding is made of horse hair or foam.
Everything will be contested, mostly because the only thing each of these corners really like about each other is the money they can generate.
There’s plenty of that and it’s why the rematch was always inevitable. Timing was really the key here. If there ever was urgency attached to doing a rematch, GGG-Canelo II was it.
If they waited until, say next year, after struggling against an emerging Billy Joe Saunders or against no-name Spike O’Sullivan, the potential money would have dwindled to a fraction of what it is now.
GGG and his promotional rep, Tom Loeffler, acted as if they knew that from the moment the rematch was in apparent jeopardy after news of Canelo’s two failed PED tests in February.
GGG, Loeffler and trainer Abel Sanchez acted proactively, carefully, and yet with an unwavering focus on securing a deal for a bout on the first good date, September 15.
In the wake of Canelo’s withdrawal from their initial date on May 5, there was controversy about GGG’s decision to fight anyway on Cinco de Mayo against overmatched Vanes Martirosyan at StubHub Center. The fight – a GGG victory in an overwhelming second round stoppage – was forgettable. In terms of his career and what it meant to his chances at more favorable terms in a Canelo rematch, however, it is huge.
The Martirosyan fight provided a forum for GGG to further question Canelo, who was not enrolled in VADA, the voluntary drug testing program attached to the WBC. It also provided GGG a forum to say he wanted more equitable terms.
A few days after Martirosyan, Canelo announced he had agreed to resume voluntary testing. Would that have happened without the criticism from GGG and fans that were amplified by the Martirosyan fight? No way.
Canelo was in a defensive posture, telling a skeptical public to trust that the positive tests were simply the result of eating tainted Mexican beef. But there’s no trust without verification. Overwhelming doubt expressed by fans before and after Martirosyan left Canelo and Golden Boy with no choice.
They were back in VADA.
Then, they were back at the table.
However, GGG also had let it be known he would not agree to the original terms, 70 percent for Canelo and 30 for GGG. He came to the table asking for 50-50. That was a good starting point, but that’s all it was. Canelo still ranks as the draw.
According to reports Wednesday, GGG first said no to a 42.5 percent in a deal that gave Canelo 57.5. GGG demanded 45 percent, take it or leave it.
Canelo promoter Oscar De La Hoya initially said no. About an hour later, however, they had a deal, although terms weren’t disclosed.
Not sure exactly what happened, but a guess is that HBO somehow got involved and saved what figures to be a pay-per-view moneymaker. Floyd Mayweather Jr.-versus- Manny Pacquiao in 2015, a record revenue setter, would probably not have happened without late involvement from Les Moonves, president and CEO of CBS, Showtime’s parent company.
Whatever happened, GGG is getting a big raise from a likely bigger total revenue pool than what he collected a year ago. In the process, he also appeared to grab the high ground in a contentious give-and-take that will continue to sell the rematch until Sept. 15.
But will that represent a GGG advantage at opening bell? Not sure about that one. Canelo has been mostly quiet. Not sure whether his relative silence represents anger or some self-doubt. Before the positive PED tests, I would have picked him to win the rematch. He’s younger and has shown he learns from adversity. He emerged from his one-sided-loss to Mayweather as a much better fighter.
Can he emerge once more? He’ll have to against a fighter and management team that has proven it can wage a patient, well-coordinated fight on both sides of the ropes.
