By Norm Frauenheim-
Predictions, like glass jaws, are fragile. Hangovers from a New Year’s Eve party last longer.
The best resolution: Resolve to never make another one. That’s an old line, also a lesson forgotten quickly as one year ends and another begins.
Other than a surge in more COVID-related postponements, nothing is certain. But 2022’s opening bell means just about anything else can happen.
A few guesses:
It made for an entertaining headline, but don’t expect Canelo Alvarez to fight cruiserweight Ilunga Makabu, unknown until the possibility was introduced about a month ago. There are too many issues and maybe too much risk in moving up two weight classes. Don’t expect him to fight David Benavidez or Gennadiy Golovkin, either. Do expect him to fight Joe Smith Jr. in the super-middleweight champion’s first attempt to unify the light-heavyweight division.
Expect Benavidez to say, again and again, that Canelo is ducking him. He might be right. Fans and Floyd Mayweather Jr. agree with him. But Canelo doesn’t care. Boxing’s biggest draw can do whatever he wants. Instead, expect the maturing Benavidez, who turned 25 on Dec. 17, to blow out David Lemieux and then jump up the scale, from super-middle to light-heavy, in his chase to fight Canelo.
Terence Crawford isn’t underrated. He’s unappreciated. Maybe that changes in 2022, but don’t bet on it. Pay-per-view sales for his brilliant stoppage of Shawn Porter Nov. 20 were reported to be 135,000. Underperformed is how much of the media described the PPV. But it was devastating for what it says about the state of the game. Crawford’s versatility and old-school instinct – he’s a finisher – still makes him No. 1 in some pound-for-debates, including this one. But the PPV number says that most in the boxing audience don’t care. Or, maybe, it says that audience isn’t very big anymore. Or, maybe, they’re watching Jake Paul.
More Crawford: He announced he was moving on, leaving Top Rank after he forced Porter’s dad/trainer to throw in the towel. His PPV number in November makes free-agency in 2022 problematic. Still, the year is pivotal. He’ll be 35 on Sept. 28. Does he fight Josh Taylor? Taylor might be ready to jump from junior-welterweight to welter later this year. Taylor has the UK audience. But he’s a Top Rank fighter. Errol Spence is still there. But don’t be surprised if Spence finds more ways to not fight Crawford. November 20 was just another way. Crawford stopped Porter; Spence scored a split decision over Porter.
The lightweight division was called a modern version of The Four Kings – Devin Haney, Gervonta Davis, Ryan Garcia and Teofimo Lopez — after Lopez dethroned Vasiliy Lomachenko in October 2020. Don’t be surprised if Lomachenko is back as the only lightweight king before 2022 turns into 2023. He took one step in that direction with a solid decision over Richard Commey. Now, he’s talking about Australian Geroge Kambosos Jr., who made a mockery out of The Four Kings with a decision over Lopez. Guess here: He beats Kambosos.
Oleksandr Usyk might have the same problem against the best and biggest in the heavyweight division that fellow Ukrainian Lomachenko had in the lighter weights. There’s a reason for weight classes. Lomachenko, a natural featherweight, got hurt at 135 pounds. That leaves a question about Usyk, a natural cruiserweight. Dynamic skills and guile were enough to beat Anthony Joshua. Both should be enough for victory in the rematch, projected for April. Then, there’s a looming showdown with Tyson Fury, who may or may not fight Dillian Whyte first in a mandatory. It’s hard to say how Usyk does against Fury and his 6-foot-9 NBA dimensions. But it’s a reason to look forward to 2022.
Here’s wishing ring announcer David Diamante a full recovery, a Filipino presidency for Manny Pacquiao and a Happy 2022 to everybody.
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