Underdog: Oscar Valdez still in the role in tough test against Shakur Stevenson

By Norm Frauenheim-

It’s easy to underestimate Oscar Valdez Jr. Easier, too, to pick against him. But he probably wouldn’t want it any other way. The role fits him like an old pair of running shoes.

The underdog gene is there, an inseparable part of his identity – and motivation. Above all, it works. At 31, he can look into that full-length mirror in the gym and know exactly who he is. Let everybody else ask the questions.

Everybody else is, all over again, before his junior-lightweight fight (ESPN, 10 pm ET/7 pm PT) against Shakur Stevenson Saturday night at Las Vegas’ MGM Grand. Look at the odds. It’s impossible not to see the doubt.

Valdez is about 5-to-1 underdog. For a long-awaited bout between two unbeaten fighters, that’s huge. Big fights come together because they’re hard to pick. But not this one. It’s hard to find many picks for Valdez.

The reasons are elusive, especially for a fighter who is known for an inexhaustible will. He ended Miguel Berchelt’s career. Berchelt was feared and also a big favorite before they fought in 2021. The biggest fear was that Valdez might get hurt. But Valdez destroyed Berchelt, scoring a knockout that stripped the fellow Mexican of his predatory aura. In his first fight since then, Berchelt was simply not the same. He was shot, a shell of what he had been, in a sixth-round stoppage loss to Jeremiah Nakathila in March.

Let’s say Berchelt had done to Valdez what so many had expected. Then, maybe Berchelt might have been fighting Stevenson. The odds? Guess here: Pretty close to 50-50, a pick-em fight.

But the Valdez-Stevenson forecast is decidedly one-sided.

Valdez thinks he knows why. 2021 was an up-and-down ride for Valdez, who calls the year a learning experience. It started with an emotional high in the aftermath of the Berchelt upset and then crashed with a positive drug test that surrounded Valdez’ difficult decision over Robson Conceicao in Tucson, Valdez’ second home.

“It ended in a place as low as I’ve ever been personally,’’ Valdez said this week in a zoom call with reporters.

The odds in favor of Stevenson (17-0, 9 KOs), Valdez (30-0, 23 KOs) says, are simple enough to explain. They answer that old question: What have you done for me lately? Valdez says he wasn’t at his best in his debatable decision over Conceicao.  In Stevenson’s last fight, he looked sensational in a 10^th-round TKO of Jamel Herring in October.

“You’re only as good as your last fight,’’ Valdez said.

But the victory over Conceicao wasn’t exactly an exception in Valdez’ decade in the pro ring. He often fights to the level of his opposition. Put it this way: He knocked out the accomplished Berchelt and got knocked down by the pedestrian Genesis Servania.

Valdez’ famous stablemate, Canelo Alvarez, says Valdez likes to please the crowd too often. That’s part of it, perhaps. He waved in journeyman Miguel Marriaga in the final rounds of a 2017 bout in Carson, Calif. He did so, he said then, because he wanted to give the fans an entertaining fight.

Yet, he survived a broken jaw for a bloody decision over Scott Quigg in 2018, also in Carson. That one wasn’t for the fans. There were none in the seats at the outdoor arena because of a rain storm on a chilly night in March in southern California. Valdez, the winner, left the arena with his blood in a pool next to pools of rain water on wet canvas. He was placed on a stretcher and into an ambulance. Then, there were questions whether we would ever see him back in the ring.

We have, of course.

That night in Carson probably defined Valdez more than any other in his 30-fight career. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: Nobody bites down quite the way Valdez does.

It’s an intangible, meaning it’s hard to measure. Yet, it has always been there, a factor that has allowed Valdez to overcome whatever disadvantages he might have in foot speed, or power, or reach.

No matter who he fights, Valdez gets himself into trouble at some point because he has to. But he transforms his trouble into trouble for the opposition, be they named Berchelt or Servania.

Put it this way: I’ve never seen Valdez in an easy fight, but I’ve never seen him lose one either. That said, I think it ends against Stevenson, who said during the zoom session that he has never fought anybody with Valdez’ willpower.

The guess here is that time will work against Valdez, both short-term and long-term. He’s seven years older than the 24-year-old Stevenson. The wear-and-tear of his many wars will begin to take an inevitable toll. Meanwhile, Stevenson’s skill set is evolving.

Stevenson will employ all of it to score early. Then, he’ll survive a stubborn Valdez’ assault midway through the fight. In the end, Stevenson wins an unanimous decision.

I hope I’m wrong. I hope Valdez proves me wrong all over again in another victory for an underdog who knows the role and how to use it.