By Norm Frauenheim –
Chaos is boxing’s oxygen. If the last few months are a sign, the patient is breathing. Maybe even thriving.
The latest indication is news Thursday from Terence Crawford and Errol Spence that they’ll be fighting July 29.
Just a week after the controversy surrounding Devin Haney’s unanimous decision over Vasiliy Lomachenko erupted, Crawford and Spence took to Instagram to say they have a deal.
The announcement included a PBC poster, betting odds and just about everything else that would represent some sort of confirmation in any other world.
But this is boxing, so caveat emptor. Given the abortive Crawford-Spence negotiations last fall and the subsequent mess of premature reports and denials, skepticism is healthy. Make that necessary.
Every expectation should come with the warning that no fight is real until you hear an opening bell. For fans, that one is a little bit like a referee’s directive: Defend yourself at all times. Not everyone does, of course.
Opening bell was still 66 days away from the moment when Crawford and Spence made their announcement. In a business ruled by chaos, that’s a lot of time, meaning a whole lot can still go wrong.
That said, this round of Crawford-Spence news seems to indicate that the long-awaited welterweight fight on Showtime pay-per-view at Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena is as close as it’s ever been.
“Time to reel in the big fish,’’ Crawford said in his post. “No more talking. Let’s get it.
“Everybody come out, show support, and watch me fry this fish.’’
Hopefully, this is not another fish story, as in another big one got away. Guess here: It’s not. At best, both Crawford and Spence are near the end of their respective primes. Crawford, 35, will be 36 in September. Spence, 33, will be 34 in March.
To extend Crawford’s analogy, it’s time to fish or cut bait. It’s their last chance to secure a true legacy.
It’s fair to wonder how they reached their agreement. Last fall, it looked as if Crawford-Spence would be just another big fight that never got made. The career clock exerts its own urgency, of course.
But there’s more to it than that. At the time the deal fell through about seven months ago, it looked as is if the possibility was dead.
Still, Crawford vowed he would continue to pursue the date. But the numbers just weren’t promising. Neither Crawford nor Spence has ever done well enough on pay-per-view to support an agreement that reportedly includes eight-figure purses for each.
Crawford’s best PPV is a reported 135,000 for a 10th-round stoppage of Shawn Porter in November 2021. That fell 15,000 short of the 150,000 break-even mark.
Spence’s PPV high is reported to be between 300,000 and 350,000 for a split-decision over Porter in September 2019.
Those numbers just said the market wasn’t there.
Then, Tank Davis-Ryan Garcia happened on April 22. The fight itself disappointed. Davis forced Garcia into a seventh-round surrender. But the PPV number exceeded every expectation. Tank-Garcia did a reported 1.2 million.
It was a number that said a viable market is still there, hungry and willing to pay for the right fight.
Is Crawford-Spence that fight?
About that, there are questions.
But the marketing has been there, front and center, even before negotiations failed last fall.
Like it or not, there’s no market for a fight without outrage from fans and media these days. That might lead to a Lomachenko-Haney rematch. Maybe, the scoring wasn’t a robbery. But no rematch would rob the game and its fans.
All the while, social-media anger at Crawford and Spence never really vanished. The echoes are still there. They’ll be easy enough to stir up all over again.
The chaos is still there, a sure sign that the market is too. Enter at your own risk.
