By Norm Frauenheim-
The odds suggest that Gennadiy Golovkin is in Japan to celebrate a birthday. He’ll blow out 40 candles Friday. Then, he’ll blow out Ryota Murata.
It’s not that simple, of course. It might not be that one-sided either. The guess here is that Golovkin wins. But the real question is in the margins. How does he win?
It’s no secret that the middleweight bout Saturday (DAZN, 5:10 am ET/2:10 am PT) is projected to be a steppingstone to a fight that fans have wanted for three-and-half years. A long-awaited Canelo Alvarez-GGG 3 looms. It’s supposed to be next.
It’s believed that a third leg to the contentious rivalry will answer, once and for all, questions left in the unresolved wake of a draw in the first bout and Canelo’s majority decision over GGG in the second.
But a chance at finality doesn’t last long. It’s up to GGG to prove that it’s still there. He’ll be 40 at opening bell in Saitama, north of Tokyo. He’s at an age that’s hard to judge. Milestone or millstone?
It’s a question complicated by a long stretch out of the ring. It’s been about 16 months since GGG’s last fight, a seventh-round stoppage of Kamil Szeremeta in December 2020.
A fighter stuck in idle during his prime is one thing. Rust is temporary. An idle fighter a few years beyond his prime is a question. Erosion is permanent.
GGG is in Japan, perhaps amid some uncertainty about how his legs and reflexes will respond. He’s also there aware of the country’s unique boxing history. One of history’s defining upsets happened in Japan. Buster Douglas upset Mike Tyson in 1990.
“Japan is the land of surprises, at least when it comes to boxing,’’ GGG (41-1-1, 36 KOs) said. “I remember what happened in the Tyson-Douglas fight. It has been in the back of mind throughout training camp.’’
The danger of history repeating itself, however, seems remote. Murata (16-2, 13 KOs), whose spotty record includes losses to Hassan N’Dam and Rob Brant, is listed as a 4-to-1 underdog. He’s also not exactly young. He’s 36. He’ll be 37 in January. He’s also been idle longer than GGG has. Murat hasn’t fought in about two-and-half years. He last answered an opening bell in December 2019, scoring a fifth-round stoppage of Steven Butler, an unknown Canadian.
GGG’s biggest concern might be recent history. His birthday Friday makes me think about Manny Pacquiao. Pacquiao’s legendary career ended last August in a scorecard loss to Yordenis Ugas, then a late-stand-in for Errol Spence Jr., who withdrew because of an eye injury.
Pacquiao was a huge favorite. He was the Pacquiao everybody remembered and not the 42-year-old fighting for the first time in two years. He was coming off a split decision over Keith Thurman in 2019. He was 40 then. Two years later, he was just too old.
GGG is a couple of years younger. He also appears to be facing an opponent, Murata, who isn’t the threat that Ugas turned out to be. Still, some of the questions are familiar, all brought on by a 40th birthday.
A dramatic GGG knockout of Murata would set the stage for a third fight with Canelo, who has to take care of his own business on May 7 against light-heavyweight Dmitry Bivol. A big KO, a resurrection of GGG’s Big Drama Show, is promoter Eddie Hearn’s hope. Make that bet. It would sell the pay-per-view.
But a narrow decision – or, worse, a controversial one — would only leave further questions. It might be unfair to expect GGG to still be the force he was four, five years ago. If he isn’t, however, a third fight with Canelo won’t prove anything other than to say it is past due.
