Canelo Calculations: Big Risk in Crawford, Bigger Reward in Jake Paul? 

By Norm Frauenheim

Surprise, surprise, the Canelo Álvarez-Terence Crawford fight is off. Was it ever really on? For the nut jobs gathered in the murky bottom of the social-media cesspool, there figures to be a lot more off and on. Boxing, once called the red-light district of sports, will just keep on blinking and beckoning, offering come-ons and click-bait to the mob that wants to be entertained and enraged more than informed. 

The Canelo-Crawford report from The Ring this week is just the latest chapter in the off-and-on speculation about a fight that has been rumored for about a year. That’s not as long as all of the futile talk about Canelo-David Benavidez, which was bouncing around social media even before Elon Musk turned twitter into X, as in X-rated. 

Actually, some of the Canelo-Benavidez hopes are resurfacing, in part because of Benavidez’ solid light-heavyweight victory over David Morrell Saturday and The Ring’s update on Canelo-Crawford late Wednesday. Will Canelo ever fight Crawford or even Benavidez? I have no idea and neither does anybody engaged in the feeding frenzy on social media. 

Here’s why: Nobody has yet to hear a word — yes or no — from Canelo. He has the final say-so. It’s a perk still attached to a career that has declined in the ring and in the pound-for-pound-debate, yet still remains a pay-per-view force. Fair or not, he gets what he wants. How much longer he’ll have that power, however, is anybody’s guess. 

There are signs that the 34-year-old Mexican might be entering the final stage of his career. To wit: Immediately after news that — for “now” — the reported Canelo-Crawford fight in September on the Las Vegas Raiders home field is off, there were reports that Canelo will fight Jake Paul, who issued a statement Thursday saying “when there is something to announce, we will announce it.’’

The Paul possibility was amplified by promoter Eddie Hearn. Hearn, who has worked with Canelo, said he heard that Paul might be his next fight, probably in May. If true, it’s an indication that Canelo is taking a big step toward retirement. Canelo, the wealthiest boxer on Forbes’ annual list of the world’s richest athletes, has been more businessman than boxer over the last couple of years. He has employed the risk-reward formula he inherited from Floyd Mayweather Jr., who reportedly became a billionaire boxer by adhering to the ratio.

Paul has been calling out Canelo for a couple years. As an aside, he has never called out Benavidez. Paul fought MMA star Anderson Silva in a boxing match two-plus years ago in Glendale AZ, just a few blocks from Phoenix streets where Benavidez grew up. 

“You call out Canelo, why not Benavidez?’’ I asked him at the formal news conference.

“I’m not ready for that,’’ Paul said.

He’s not. 

Not then. 

Especially not now.

Canelo, super-middleweight champ and still ranked in the middle of most pound-for-pound ratings, knows that, of course. He also knows that Crawford, an all-time welterweight great still among the top three in the pound-for-pound debate and now 1-0 at junior-middle, is a bigger risk than Paul ever could be. 

Like Benavidez, Paul has never called out Crawford either. 

The risk in either is not worth the reward.

But Paul, whose persona includes an edgy notoriety, has a social-media following that only Gallup can count. His drawing power is also undisputed. A Netflix audience for Paul’s sad fiasco against an aging and ailing Mike Tyson on Nov. 15 was reported to peak at 65 million. The live crowd at AT&T Stadium in Arlington TX was announced at 72,300. Factor in all of that and it’s a no-brainer.

Crawford, whose dynamic and dangerous skillset could offset his disadvantage in size, has none of Canelo’s leverage. Nobody does, perhaps not even boxing’s new money man, Saudi Prince Turki Alalshikh, who represents Crawford and recently purchased The Ring.

There’s a guessing game that Canelo-Crawford is — for “now” — off because Crawford wants more money. From this corner, he deserves a hald the total purse, a 50-50 split. But this is business, not boxing. Crawford’s problem is that he has none of Canelo’s clout. Translation: Canelo has options that Crawford does not. From Jaron “Boots’ Ennis to Vergil Ortiz,  there are challengers calling out Crawford. By all indications, however, he wants Canelo and nobody else.

Canelo, the businessman, has kept his options on the table. He’s talked about super-middleweight belt-holder William Scull, a Cuban living in Germany. Dmitrii Bivol, who beat him at light-heavyweight in May 2022, is mentioned as a possibility if Bivol beats Artur Beterbiev on Feb. 22 in Saudi Arabia in a rematch of Beterbiev’s narrow victory last October. Benavidez is supposed to get the Bivol-Beterbiev winner. Presumably, a Bivol victory would lead to a trilogy, a third fight with Beterbiev. However, it’s not clear what Beterbiev’s next move would be. At 40, he might decide to retire.

Canelo could spring a surprise and pick one of those options, or one still unforeseen.

But if risk-reward decides this one, it’s Jake Paul in May. Then what? For now, it’s a question without an answer everywhere other than social media.